Shift from conventional to RES, Modelling the public perception in Pakistan

Although Pakistan poses an enormous renewable energy sources (RES) potential, their share in the energy mix of Pakistan is very low as compared to the conventional sources like fossil fuels.The Government policies, strategies and goals for the development of renewable energy also at work. Moreover,some work has also been done in technical and economic viability to harness the potential of RES at small, medium and large scale. However, a scientific work to address the basic question as to how much the general populace is willing to shift to RES from the conventional is largely missing. In this study, we have inculcated the social and psychological factor to access the public acceptance towards RES. The theory of planned behavior provided the basic model, which was then expanded to statistically measure the willingness of the public to accept the RES. For the method we conducted a survey (N = 400),primarily, among the students of National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad Pakistan. This was because these students are mostly studying energy and sciences discipline and will be future stakeholder to help the transition from conventional to the RES. They will be the implementors and makers of policies friendly towards the RES. The empirical data obtained was analyzed using the structural equation modelling. Self-identity, intention and price played the most significant role on molding the public behavior while other also had a considerable impact on the shift and cannot be ignored. Finally, a few policy suggestions were also made.尽管巴基斯坦拥有极为可观的可再生能源（Renewable Energy Sources, RES）潜力，但相较于化石燃料等传统能源，其在巴基斯坦能源结构中的占比仍极低。巴基斯坦政府已出台一系列推动可再生能源发展的政策、战略与目标，并已付诸实践。此外，学界已针对中小及大规模开发利用可再生能源潜力的技术与经济可行性开展了相关研究。然而，目前仍缺乏针对“普通民众愿意在多大程度上从传统能源转向可再生能源”这一核心问题的系统性科学研究。本研究引入社会与心理维度，以评估公众对可再生能源的接受意愿。研究以计划行为理论（Theory of Planned Behavior）为基础模型，随后对其进行拓展，以量化测算公众接受可再生能源的意愿。研究采用问卷调查法，共回收有效样本400份，调查对象主要为巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡国立科技大学（National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad Pakistan）的在校学生。选择该群体作为调查对象的原因在于，他们大多就读能源与科学相关专业，未来将成为推动传统能源向可再生能源转型的利益相关者，同时也是可再生能源友好型政策的制定者与执行者。本研究采用结构方程模型（Structural Equation Modeling, SEM）对获取的实证数据进行分析。结果显示，自我认同、使用意愿与能源价格对公众行为倾向的影响最为显著，其余因素同样对能源转型存在可观影响，不容忽视。最后，本研究针对可再生能源推广提出了若干政策建议。