Can People’s Congresses Play a Positive Role in Environmental Governance? A Focus on Budget Legislation in Chinese Cities

We analyze panel data from 286 Chinese cities between 2003 and 2020 using a staggered difference-in-differences approach to assess the experimental effect of budget legislation on air quality. The results show that budget legislation significantly reduces the particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5) in the air by 1.58% and carbon emissions by 1.2% in pilot cities, and these findings are highly robust. This improvement in environmental governance is achieved through increased government spending on environmental protection and more environmental penalty cases. Moreover, the positive impacts are more evident in cities experiencing significant fiscal pressure or frequent leadership changes. This study is the first to demonstrate the effectiveness of budget legislation as a tool for congressional environmental governance, an area that has previously neglected budgetary means. The findings highlight the need to enhance the budgetary power of people's congresses, rather than merely serving as legitimizing entities.本研究采用渐进双重差分法（staggered difference-in-differences），对2003年至2020年中国286个城市的面板数据（panel data）展开分析，以评估预算立法（budget legislation）对空气质量的政策实验效应。研究结果表明，试点城市的预算立法可使空气中的细颗粒物PM2.5浓度显著降低1.58%，碳排放减少1.2%，且该结论稳健性极强。此类环境治理成效的取得，源于环境保护领域政府财政投入的增加以及环境处罚案件数量的提升。此外，该政策的积极效应在财政压力较大或领导班子换届频繁的城市中更为显著。本研究首次证实了预算立法作为人民代表大会（people's congresses）环境治理工具的有效性，而此前该领域尚未关注到预算手段的应用。研究结果凸显了强化人民代表大会预算职权的必要性，而非仅将其作为合法性背书的机构。