Replication Data for: Do Emotional Ads Persuade? Evidence from Real-Time Campaign Advertising Experiments

We evaluate whether campaign advertisements that generate larger emotional reactions also generate larger persuasive effects in contemporary elections. We analyze 29 weeks of experiments conducted during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, in which 48 authentic campaign ads were tested in real time, often within days of their debut. The ads and a placebo were randomly assigned to approximately 28,000 subjects. We find that campaign ads reliably move emotions, albeit in largely partisan ways, with comparatively muted reactions among independents. Critically, however, these emotional reactions do not predict the magnitude of an ad's effect on candidate favorability, vote intention, policy preferences, or turnout intention. Our results cast doubt on emotion-based accounts of advertising persuasion in polarized elections and caution practitioners against using self-reported emotional reactions as a measure of message effectiveness.本研究旨在探究：在当代选举语境中，引发更强情绪反应的竞选广告，是否也能带来更强的说服效果。我们分析了2016年美国总统竞选期间开展的29周实验，实验中共对48支真实竞选广告进行实时测试，测试通常在广告上线数日内完成。研究将这些广告与安慰剂（placebo）材料随机分配给约28000名受试者。结果显示，竞选广告确实能够有效引发情绪变化，但整体上呈现出强烈的党派偏向性，无党派选民的反应相对平缓。但至关重要的是，此类情绪反应无法预测广告对候选人好感度、投票意向、政策偏好或投票参与意向的影响强度。本研究结果对极化选举中基于情绪的广告说服理论解释提出了质疑，并提醒相关从业者勿将自我报告的情绪反应作为信息传播效果的衡量指标。