The precision (fraction of detected epidemics are indeed epidemics) and recall (the rate at which we claim an epidemics in the case of an epidemic) as a function of the percentile (i.e. the proportion of models predicting a case rate <i>below</i> the threshold).

For example, when we raise an alert when the 95th percentile goes above the threshold, we detect all epidemics, however, 68% of the time the claimed epidemics do not result in an epidemic; simply put we claim epidemics all the time.