Predicting species occurrences with habitat network models

1. Biodiversity conservation requires modelling tools capable of predicting the presence or absence (i.e. occurrence-state) of species in habitat patches. Local habitat characteristics of a patch (lh), the cost of traversing the landscape matrix between patches (weighted connectivity; (wc), and the position of the patch in the habitat network topology (nt) all influence occurrence-state. Existing models are data demanding or consider only local habitat characteristics. We address these shortcomings and present a network-based modelling approach, which aims to predict species occurrence-state in habitat patches using readily available presence-only records. 2. For the tree frog Hyla arborea on the Swiss Plateau, we delineated habitat network nodes from an ensemble habitat suitability model, and used different cost surfaces to generate the edges of three networks: one limited only by dispersal distance (Uniform), another incorporating traffic, and a third based on inverse habitat suitabil...