Projected way to COVID-19 herd immunity in the U.S. during 2021 by type

For February 21, 2021, it was estimated that around 33 percent of the U.S. population was immune to COVID-19. According to the latest modeling, herd immunity - if estimated at around 70 percent of a population being immune to the virus - will probably not be reached in the course of 2021. Several reasons can be mentioned, among others: new and more infectious variants of the virus, vaccination hesitancy, and the lack of a vaccine for children. However, it is still not totally clear what percentage of a population needs to be immune to COVID-19 for there to be herd immunity against the disease. As the data shows, it is possible that from summer 2021 on something near herd immunity - or: a state closer to normal life - could be reached.

截至2021年2月21日，据估算，美国约有33%的人口对COVID-19具有免疫力。根据最新的模型预测，若以人口中约70%对病毒具有免疫力作为群体免疫的估计标准，则群体免疫可能在2021年内难以实现。其中，可列举出诸多原因，例如病毒出现新的、更具传染性的变种，疫苗接种犹豫不决，以及缺乏针对儿童的疫苗。然而，关于要使群体免疫得以实现，需要有多少比例的人口对COVID-19具有免疫力，这一问题仍不明确。从数据中可以看出，从2021年夏季开始，有可能达到接近群体免疫的状态，或称之为更接近正常生活状态的一种状态。