Supplementary information files for Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change

(c) the authors, CC-BY 4.0Supplementary files for article Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate changeManual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) and three time periods: 1991–2010 (recent past), 2041–2060 (mid‐century) and 2081–2100 (end‐century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90‐day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end‐century/SSP5‐8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop‐growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo‐Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End‐century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid‐century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions—reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub‐Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor‐intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.

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补充文件：关于气候变化导致全球农业劳动力手工操作能力下降的研究
户外体力劳动在众多农业体系中至关重要。气候变化将使许多地区的此类劳动因热暴露而变得更加艰苦。体力工作能力指标（PWC）是一种基于生理学的评估方法，用于估算个体在无任何热应激环境下的工作能力。我们计算了近期历史和潜在未来气候条件下的PWC。每日PWC值基于五个地球系统模型和三个排放情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）以及三个时间段：1991-2010（近期历史）、2041-2060（中世纪）和2081-2100（世纪末）的每日值。全年、生长季节和年度最热90天内的平均每日PWC值被汇总。在近期历史气候条件下，全球一半的农作物种植区的生长季节PWC低于0.86（即满负荷工作能力的86%）。在世纪末/SSP5-8.5的热力学条件下，此值降至0.7，受影响最严重的作物种植区主要位于东南亚、南亚、西非和中美洲北部。在一些重要的粮食生产区域，如巴基斯坦和印度的印度-恒河平原，平均生长季节PWC可能降至0.4以下。世纪末的PWC下降幅度远大于中世纪的下降幅度。本文评估了两种潜在适应策略——通过遮阳或夜间工作减少直接太阳辐射的影响，以及通过提高机械化水平减少对重体力劳动的需求。消除直接太阳辐射的影响可提高最热时期和地区的PWC值0.05至0.10。通过增加每公顷马力（HP）至某些高收入国家相似水平，以提高机械化水平，将需要全球HP可用性提高22%，其中撒哈拉以南非洲的需求最为迫切。可能存在转向劳动密集度较低作物或那些在较凉爽时期有劳动高峰的作物，或转向清晨工作的空间。