中国各省土壤重金属污染评价:基于不同土壤类型的归一化、土壤质量标准到生态风险评价数据集(2020-2023年)
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采用多元回归预测和种间外推预测分别对土壤理化参数和生态毒性进行模型模拟,构建了Cu、Cd、Pb、As、菲和苯并(a)芘等典型污染物的59个多元回归和97个种间外推土壤生态毒性归一化模型,通过实测数据对模型预测数据进行验证,发现模型预测毒性值与实际测试值相似,超过60%的物种归一化预测值位于实测值的三倍范围内,95%在十倍范围内,国内外研究表明十倍的毒性差异是可以接受的,证明了构建的生态毒性归一化模型预测效果可靠。
Multiple regression prediction and interspecies extrapolation prediction were respectively employed to perform model simulations for soil physicochemical parameters and ecotoxicity. For typical pollutants including Cu, Cd, Pb, As, phenanthrene and benzo(a)pyrene, 59 multiple regression models and 97 interspecies extrapolation-based normalized soil ecotoxicity models were constructed. The predicted outputs of these models were validated against measured experimental data. Results indicated that the predicted toxicity values were highly consistent with the actual test values: more than 60% of the normalized predicted values for various species fell within a three-fold range of the measured values, while 95% fell within a ten-fold range. Domestic and international studies have demonstrated that a ten-fold difference in toxicity is acceptable, which confirms the reliable predictive performance of the constructed normalized soil ecotoxicity models.




