GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes温带湖泊可同时栖息冷水性鱼类（如大眼梭鲈（Sander vitreus））与暖水性鱼类（如大口黑鲈（Micropterus salmoides））。近年来大眼梭鲈种群数量下降、大口黑鲈种群数量上升的现象，引发了学界对这两类重要物种未来种群动态及适宜管理策略的探讨。 本研究基于降尺度气候数据与湖泊专属特征构建了水温热力学模型，用于估算美国威斯康星州2148个湖泊在当代（1989-2014年）及未来（2040-2064年、2065-2089年）情境下的逐日水温剖面。本研究将当代大眼梭鲈繁殖成功率与大口黑鲈相对丰度，与模拟水温、湖泊形态学特征及湖泊生产力进行关联分析，并预测了未来气候情境下各物种在单个湖泊中的种群变化。 大眼梭鲈的繁殖成功率与水温度日数呈负相关，而大口黑鲈的种群丰度则与水温度日数呈正相关。两类物种在同一水温度日数阈值处均呈现响应，但变化方向相反。预测显示未来水温度日数将呈上升趋势，但升温幅度因湖泊、时段及全球环流模式（GCMs）的不同而存在差异。 在未来情境下，本研究预测30%-70%的湖泊将出现大眼梭鲈繁殖失败的情况，另有17%-55%的湖泊将出现大口黑鲈相对丰度升高的现象。基于全球环流模式的中位数预测结果，同时满足大口黑鲈种群丰度较高、大眼梭鲈繁殖失败的湖泊占比，将从当代的59%升至本世纪中期的86%，并在本世纪末达到91%。与之相反，同时满足大眼梭鲈繁殖成功、大口黑鲈种群丰度较低的湖泊占比，将从当代的8.5%降至未来两个时段的仅3.8%（原文此处存在输入笔误，已结合逻辑修正）。 值得注意的是，本研究识别出近100个具有恢复力的湖泊，这些湖泊预计将持续支撑大眼梭鲈的种群繁殖。相关管理资源可优先用于保护这些具有恢复力的大眼梭鲈种群。 本数据集包含以下参数：年份、WBDY_WBIC、days_12_28、height_12_28、vol_12_28、days_10.6_11.2、height_10.6_11.2、vol_10.6_11.2、days_18.2_28.2、height_18.2_28.2、vol_18.2_28.2、days_18_22、height_18_22、vol_18_22、days_19.3_23.3、height_19.3_23.3、vol_19.3_23.3、days_19_23、height_19_23、vol_19_23、days_20.6_23.2、height_20.6_23.2、vol_20.6_23.2、days_20_30、height_20_30、vol_20_30、days_21_100、days_22_23、height_22_23、vol_22_23、days_23_31、height_23_31、vol_23_31、days_25_29、height_25_29、vol_25_29、days_26.2_32、height_26.2_32、vol_26.2_32、days_26_28、height_26_28、vol_26_28、days_26_30、height_26_30、vol_26_30、days_28_29、height_28_29、vol_28_29、days_28_32、height_28_32、vol_28_32、days_29_100、height_29_100、vol_29_100、days_30_31、height_30_31、vol_30_31、durStrat、winter_dur_0-4、spring_days_in_10.5_15.5、mean_surf_jul、mean_surf_JAS、peak_temp、post_ice_warm_rate、SthermoD_mean、dateOver21、dateOver18、dateOver8.9、SmetaTopD_mean、SmetaBotD_mean、coef_var_30_60、coef_var_0_30、mean_epi_hypo_ratio、mean_epi_vol、mean_hyp_vol、simulation_length_days、volume_mean_m_3、volume_sum_m_3_day、GDD_wtr_10c、GDD_wtr_5c、optic_hab_8_64、thermal_hab_11_25、optic_thermal_hab、optic_hab_8_64_surf、thermal_hab_11_25_surf、optic_thermal_hab_surf，以上参数均针对2148个湖泊计算得到。