Tree Cover Loss Due to Fires in Argentina: Provincial-Level Analysis and Control Variables (2001–2023)

This analysis uses data from Global Forest Watch (GFW), a platform that monitors forest changes worldwide using satellite imagery and geospatial data. Tree cover is defined as all vegetation (natural forests or plantations) at least five meters tall, with varying levels of canopy density. It represents the presence of trees within a geographically defined area at a spatial resolution of 30 meters and may include both natural forests and tree plantations. According to GFW, dry forests and savannas are represented using canopy thresholds below 10 percent, while dense tropical forests such as the Amazon are mapped using thresholds above 50 or 75 percent. However, for cross-country comparative studies, the platform recommends using thresholds above 30 percent. We adopted these thresholds for Argentina and Brazil. Tree cover loss refers to any activity that results in the complete removal of the tree canopy. These activities may include commodity-driven deforestation (large-scale loss linked to commercial agricultural expansion), shifting agriculture (temporary or permanent loss due to small- and medium-scale farming), forestry (temporary loss due to plantations and harvesting of natural forests, including partial deforestation of primary forests), forest fires (temporary loss in the initial forest disturbance), and urbanization (deforestation for urban expansion). The specific variable used in this analysis, tree cover loss due to fires, does not include forest fires that result in canopy loss at a pixel scale smaller than 30 meters, which are classified as low-intensity fires by GFW. The data represent the initial forest disturbance that replaces the stand during the 2001 to 2023 period. This excludes subsequent fires, such as the burning of trunks after forest clearing for agriculture, or fires that occur following forest regrowth after the initial disturbance within the study period. The dataset is an updated version of the tree cover loss data produced by Global Forest Watch, which incorporates several methodological improvements, including the integration of Landsat 8 imagery in 2013 and algorithmic updates introduced in 2011 and 2015. These changes may affect comparability with earlier datasets. In addition to the main variable, the database includes several control variables that help contextualize environmental change across provinces. These include: the existence of tree cover with canopy density greater than 30 percent in the years 2000 and 2010 (measured in hectares), based on data from Global Forest Watch; average annual provincial daily precipitation (in millimeters), from the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional), based on requested data; average daily provincial temperature, calculated as the mean between maximum and minimum daily temperatures (in degrees Celsius), also from the National Meteorological Service; year-to-year variation in provincial temperature (in degrees Celsius); and year-to-year variation in provincial precipitation (in millimeters), both obtained from the National Meteorological Service. Additionally, the analysis includes fire hotspots as a complementary variable. These refer to satellite-detected points of high thermal activity that indicate active fire events. Fire hotspots help capture the intensity and distribution of fire activity over time and serve as a relevant indicator of forest fire pressure in combination with tree cover loss data. Together, these variables provide a robust framework to examine spatial and temporal patterns of forest disturbance, enabling a deeper understanding of the role of climatic and anthropogenic factors in shaping deforestation dynamics