Forecasting the Global and Regional Burden of Severe Periodontitis (2020-2025) using WHO Global Oral Health Status Report (2022) Data and ARIMA Models

Purpose: This dataset provides age-standardized prevalence and case data for severe periodontitis among individuals aged 15 years and older, along with a time series analysis and a forecast of the global and regional burden of the disease from 2020 to 2025.Methods: Data were extracted from the WHO Global Oral Health Status Report (2022), covering the period from 1990 to 2019. The dataset is stratified by World Bank income groups and WHO regions. The analysis was performed using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and future case numbers were estimated by applying prevalence forecasts to United Nations population projections.Findings: The analysis reveals a significant global burden of severe periodontitis, which is projected to increase from a global prevalence of 19.0% (~1.216 billion cases) in 2019 to 19.8% (~1.36 billion cases) by 2025. The data highlights a disproportionately higher burden in lower-middle-income countries, which are forecasted to reach 498 million cases (21.7% prevalence) by 2025. The dataset can be used by public health professionals and policymakers to inform resource allocation and strategy development for managing and preventing periodontal disease.