Insecurity and Support for Female Leadership in Conflict States: Evidence from Afghanistan

While women’s political inclusion is central to international conflict resolution efforts, public attitudes in conflict states towards women’s political inclusion remain underexplored. We expect insecurity to depress support for female political leadership in conflicts where women’s political inclusion is violently contested. Citizens wanting security through force prefer male leaders because of stereotypes privileging men’s military prowess. Citizens wanting security through reconciliation, however, also favour men for fear that female leadership would provoke more violence. We assess these expectations with experimental and observational data from the former Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. In the survey experiment, priming respondents to think about insecurity decreases support for female leadership – but only among women. In observational data, insecurity correlates with more polarized attitudes towards women's political representation in some regions, and greater support for female leaders in others. Insecurity’s impact on public support for female leadership in conflict states may be highly heterogeneous.