The global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for asthma attributable to nitrogen dioxide pollution from 1990 to 2021 and predicted the trends from 2022 to 2050

To support policymakers in developing effective health policies, this study analyzed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for asthma attributable to Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution from 1990 to 2021 and predicted future trends. Utilizing the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD) 2021 database, this study analyzed the burden of asthma attributable to NO2 pollution using DALYs and summary exposure value (SEV), stratified by gender, age, region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI) level. The asthma risk attributed to NO2 pollution was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF). The Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) package in R was used to forecast future trends. The global age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDALYs) decreased from 4.80 [95%UI: −4.29 to 17.75] in 1990 to 2.48 [95%UI: −2.26 to 10.30] in 2021. ASDALYs for males were higher than for females. DALYs were the highest proportion in those aged under 15 years. From 1990 to 2021, SEV and ASDALYs increased in Southeast Asia. In 2021, SEV and ASDALYs in Lebanon were 84.35 [95%UI: 0 to 100] and 19.73 [95%UI: −19.51 to 59.84], respectively. The impact of NO2 on the asthma burden varies across regions with different SDI levels. The global trend in ASDALYs is projected to decline until 2029, reaching approximately 2.96, before increasing to 7.12 by 2050. From 1990 to 2021, the global DALYs for asthma attributed to NO2 pollution have generally decreased. However, there may be a future rising tendency. Additionally, it is still quite significant for children under the age of 15 and in some underdeveloped regions.