Model selection results for LMMs of phytoplankton biomass.

The full statistical model (Methods, Eq 12) related ln(chlorophyll a) to ecosystem trophic structure (Zj) and average ecosystem temperature over the entire experimental period (TM), while accounting for effects of temperature variation over time (weekly average temperature [Twj]) and with ecosystem identity as a random effect. We compared models using likelihood ratios (LogLik), AICC, Akaike weights (w), and δAICC weights. The model was fit to 240 observations in 30 groups. The full model (PBF) includes all terms, and models representing alternate hypotheses excluded terms indicated by “NA.” Values indicate model-estimated coefficients. Coefficients were pooled (Methods: Statistical analysis) to estimate slopes and intercepts for Figs 2 and 3.