Media Persuasion and Historical Memory (Survey 2), 2023.

A growing body of work shows that the choices countries make about how to publicly commemorate difficult historical periods has substantial downstream consequences for those country's political and social life. Yet these choices are often controversial and can foment polarisation that undermines transitional justice efforts. This study examines the causes of polarisation over controversies related to historical memory, using Spain as a case study. We focus on the role of the media, and distinguish between top-down and bottom-up theories of polarisation. The top-down account posits that the media polarises through its agenda-setting power to amplify local controversies. The bottom-up view suggests the public has strong prior intuitions about historical memory rooted in group identities.

Through two survey experiments exposing over 15,000 Spaniards to partisan media on historical memory versus other issues, the findings suggest a combination of bottom-up and top-down explanations. Baseline polarisation is higher over historical memory, suggesting deeply held views on the past. Partisans also appear resistant to persuasion on matters of historical memory, which further supports a bottom-up account. However, we find no evidence that attitudes are uniquely resistant to persuasion on matters of historical memory. The results suggest moving beyond dichotomous theories to explore how elite messaging interacts with public intuitions in polarising societies over the past.