Beyond GDP Growth: Sectoral Expansion, Real Wages, and the Limits of Structural Transformation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the contributions of agriculture, industry, and services to Bangladesh’s GDP growth over 2005–2023 using log-log OLS models. It asks three central questions: (i) Do sectoral expansions reflect genuine structural transformation? (ii) Is GDP growth accompanied by improvements in real wages? (iii) How do demographic indicators, particularly fertility dynamics, interact with observed growth patterns? The paper identifies a central paradox: despite sustained GDP growth and sectoral shifts toward services and industry, real wage growth remains weak and demographic pressures persist. This suggests that measured growth may not reflect broad-based economic transformation. By integrating sectoral output analysis with labor market and demographic trends, the study challenges the conventional interpretation of growth and highlights structural constraints underlying Bangladesh’s development trajectory.