Inference results for assessing temporal variation of MERS-CoV transmission in the Arabian Peninsula before Aug 8, 2013.

Maximum likelihood parameters, log-likelihood scores and AIC values are shown for the various inference methods described in the text. and corresponds to transmission before and after June 1, 2013, respectively. The left column identifies the method by indicating the parameter constraints used. The model with is chosen as the reference point for the calculations since it has the best overall AIC score. Although this model has the best score, it assumes two different values of . Erring on the side of requiring 95% confidence to distinguish values, our method does not indicate that there is enough statistical support for using two different values of because the score of the model is less than two. Thus the is our preferred model (indicated by the bold cell). There were a total of 81 early cases among 21 chains and a total of 28 late cases among 19 chains.Inference results for assessing temporal variation of MERS-CoV transmission in the Arabian Peninsula before Aug 8, 2013.