Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories

Most research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrea..., Please see the README document (\"README.md\") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications.,