Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories

Most research on boreal populations of Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species’ range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily disturbed by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrea..., Please see the README document (\"README.md\") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications.,现有针对林地驯鹿（Woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou）北方种群的研究，多开展于高强度人为干扰区域。然而，该物种分布范围的相当大一部分，与以野火等自然干扰为主的相对原生区域存在重叠。气候驱动的栖息地变化是北方林依赖型物种保护的核心关切，而当前的管理决策尚未整合多生态学领域的知识，以形成连贯且空间显式的物种特异性栖息地与种群动态预测。我们采用创新性生态预测框架，对加拿大西北地区（Northwest Territories, NWT）内5个林地驯鹿监测区域开展了为期90年的气候敏感型栖息地与种群动态预测。尤为关键的是，我们量化了预测均值的不确定性。研究结果显示，加拿大西北地区泰加平原生态区的中部与西南部区域栖息地适宜性或有所提升，但……详见"README.md"文档及已发表论文：Stewart、Micheletti等（2023）。《气候适配预测揭示北方林地驯鹿的剧烈局地栖息地变化与种群不确定性》，《Ecological Applications》。