AMAZONIA 2040: SPATIAL-EXPLICIT FUTURES SCENARIOS FOR THE MOSAIC OF PROTECTED AREAS IN THE LOWER RIO NEGRO (MBRN), BRAZIL.

1. Amazonia faces socioenvironmental emergency driven by anthropogenic activities, leading to biodiversity loss and decay of ecosystem services. To halt these effects, Brazilian initiatives have established a large-scale conservation approach to foster collaborative governance for conservation action: the mosaics of protected areas. Practitioners face constant pressures from human activities, and have historically endured intentional dismantling of governance, forcing the local leaders to become reactive and short-sighted. Long-term thinking can be beneficial for governance to anticipate change and better prepare for alternative futures.
2. To address this, we applied an innovative approach to futures workshops with the Council of Leaders of the Mosaic of Protected Areas of the Lower Rio Negro (MBRN), and the Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM). Participants co-created scenarios for the MBRN in the year 2040, negotiating desirable futures, aligning values and goals. The workshops were co-designed with stakeholders, incorporating futures literacy, leadership empowerment, and spatial knowledge; building on a novel approach to futures workshops called Spatial-Explicit Futures Scenarios.
3. Probable scenarios co-created in these workshops describe futures where local citizens have little agency in decision-making; they describe environmental decay, economic instability, and high levels of corruption. In resistance, local associations strengthen through voluntary work and fight for the resilience of local governance despite the lack of resources.
4. Desirable scenarios, in the other hand, point towards an ecologically respectful and sustainable MBRN, with effective governance of common resources. In these scenarios, communities’ interests are legitimately represented and play a fundamental role in decision-making. This translates in young adults being professionally qualified, communities pursuing fully implemented sewage system, clean energy, and integrated communication network. Community-based tourism and the carbon offset market strengthens the economy and well-being.
5. Practical implication: This study aims at improving the preparedness of protected areas managers and community leaders. Leadership processes are strengthened by empowering stakeholders to anticipate challenges and to co-create actionable insights that can make their desired scenarios viable. By including historically silenced voices in territorial strategic planning, this study opens up space for these groups to express their desires and aspirations and to develop their own tangible and realistic strategic plans. In doing so, SEFS promotes sustainable and just land-use planning, empowers participants´ voices. The proposed methodology thus contributes to decolonizing science and encourages inclusive, just, and sustainable management. Furthermore, the method can be applied in various contexts beyond Amazonia enabling stakeholders to develop their own futures thinking processes.