Revisit the myth of long-tail with agent-based models

A competitive ‘long tail’ in cultural markets encompasses possibilities for equal presentation of cultural labor and sustainable diversity, however, previous digital optimism is countered with empirical inconsistency as well as backfire in industrial practice. Are tendencies in the cultural industries such as overproduction and the winner-take-all effect inevitable? In this study, we do not try to identify whether a long-tail effect exists or not, rather we ask under what condition can we fatten the tail, with agent-based simulation. Our main results are as follows: (1) initial settings create path-dependent market structures that further lead to deviation in the firm life cycle, balance of diversity, and market concentration; (2) cultural policies that prioritize small and medium-sized enterprises are legitimate, not out of the return on investment, rather, they prolong life chances for small firms during market evolution, leaving rooms for sustainable diversity, which might further lead to stylistic innovation.