Changes in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances from China Due to Implementation of the Montreal Protocol

The ozone layer depletion and its
recovery, as well as the climate
influence of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their substitutes
that influence climate, are of interest to both the scientific community
and the public. Here we report on the emissions of ODSs and their
substitute from China, which is currently the largest consumer (and
emitter) of these substances. We provide, for the first time, comprehensive
information on ODSs and replacement hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions
in China starting from 1980 based on reported production and usage.
We also assess the impacts (and costs) of controls on ODS consumption
and emissions on the ozone layer (in terms of CFC-11-equivalent) and
climate (in CO2-equivalent). In addition, we show that
while China’s future ODS emissions are likely to be defined
as long as there is full compliance with the Montreal Protocol; its
HFC emissions through 2050 are very uncertain. Our findings imply
that HFC controls over the next decades that are more stringent than
those under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol would be
beneficial in mitigating global climate change.