How should mode competitiveness and profit be balanced in maritime transport? -Vessel speed optimization approach including Northern Sea Route

Transport between East Asia and Europe heavily relies on maritime transport via the Suez Canal route (SCR), with the Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic Sea emerging as a new route due to the continuously melting polar ice. However, the dominance of maritime transport faces a threat from railways and airlines, especially for high-sensitivity commodities. This study mainly maximizes the profit of a shipping company from both NSR and SCR services with vessel speed optimization, focusing on the competition between four alternatives quantified by a logit model. The sensitivity analysis is also conducted with expanding ice-classed vessels and fluctuating bunker prices. Our findings show that maintaining a speed of approximately 20kn can capture an additional 10% of the market share for SCR; however, SCR faces challenges if future advancements enable more frequent and cost-effective railway transport. Moreover, besides expanding ice-classed vessel size, tackling the problem of limited capacity may position NSR as a promising competitor. This study contributes to providing an effective and innovative speed-optimization scheme combining economic viabilities and mode choice. It is aimed to (1) provide feasible political insights regarding mode competitions and (2) promote the commercial economic use of various modes, including NSR.东亚与欧洲间的远洋运输高度依赖苏伊士运河航线（Suez Canal Route, SCR），而随着极地海冰持续消融，穿越北冰洋的北极东北航道（Northern Sea Route, NSR）正逐步成为新兴航运通道。然而，海上运输的主导地位正面临铁路与航空运输的冲击，针对高敏感商品的运输场景，这一威胁尤为显著。本研究以船舶航速优化为核心手段，旨在最大化航运公司在北极东北航道（NSR）与苏伊士运河航线（SCR）两项服务中的经营利润，重点分析经Logit模型量化的四类备选运输方式间的竞争关系。此外，本研究还针对冰级船舶扩容与燃油价格波动开展了敏感性分析。研究结果显示，将航速维持在约20节时，苏伊士运河航线（SCR）可额外获得10%的市场份额；但若未来技术进步使得铁路运输更具频密性与成本效益，则SCR将面临严峻挑战。此外，除扩容冰级船舶吨位外，解决运力受限问题或将助力北极东北航道（NSR）成为极具竞争力的替代运输方式。本研究提出了一种兼顾经济可行性与运输方式选择的高效创新型航速优化方案，其研究目标包括：（1）为运输方式竞争问题提供可行的政策启示；（2）推动包括北极东北航道（NSR）在内的各类运输方式的商业化经济应用。