HUN Comparison of model variability and interannual variability

## **Abstract** \n\nThe dataset was derived by the Bioregional Assessment Programme from multiple source datasets. The source datasets are identified in the Lineage field in this metadata statement. The processes undertaken to produce this derived dataset are described in the History field in this metadata statement. \n\n\n\nThese are the data summarising the modelled Hydrological Response Variable (HRV) variability versus climate interannual variability which has been used as an indicator of risk. For example, to understand the significance of the modelled increases in low-flow days, it is useful to look at them in the context of the interannual variability in low-flow days due to climate. In other words, are the modelled increases due to additional coal resource development within the natural range of variability of the longer-term flow regime, or are they potentially moving the system outside the range of hydrological variability it experiences under the current climate? The maximum increase in the number of low-flow days due to additional coal resource development relative to the interannual variability in low-flow days under the baseline has been adopted to put some context around the modelled changes. If the maximum change is small relative to the interannual variability due to climate (e.g. an increase of 3 days relative to a baseline range of 20 to 50 days), then the risk of impacts from the changes in low-flow days is likely to be low. If the maximum change is comparable to or greater than the interannual variability due to climate (e.g. an increase of 200 days relative to a baseline range of 20 to 50 days), then there is a greater risk of impact on the landscape classes and assets that rely on this water source. Here changes comparable to or greater than interannual variability are interpreted as presenting a risk. However, the change due to the additional coal resource development is additive, so even a 'less than interannual variability' change is not free from risk. Results of the interannual variability comparison should be viewed as indicators of risk.\n\n## **Dataset History** \n\nThis dataset is generated using 1000 HRV simulations together with climate inputs. Ratios between the variability in HRVs, and the variability attributable interannual variability due to climate, were calculated for the HRVs. Results of the interannual variability comparison should be viewed as indicators of risk.\n\n## **Dataset Citation** \n\nBioregional Assessment Programme (2017) HUN Comparison of model variability and interannual variability. Bioregional Assessment Derived Dataset. Viewed 13 March 2019, http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/dataset/1c0a19f9-98c2-4d92-956d-dd764aaa10f9.\n\n## **Dataset Ancestors** \n\n* **Derived From** [River Styles Spatial Layer for New South Wales](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/06fb694b-d2f1-4338-ab65-a707c02f11d7)\n\n* **Derived From** [SYD ALL climate data statistics summary](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/b0a6ccf1-395d-430e-adf1-5068f8371dea)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R Observed storage volumes Glenbawn Dam and Glennies Creek Dam](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9c2dccdb-ef46-48c7-bfe1-946ab57645e5)\n\n* **Derived From** [Hunter River Salinity Scheme Discharge NSW EPA 2006-2012](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1647c153-5120-4c64-a5e8-6a1b4b0b4e4b)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R simulation nodes v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fda20928-d486-49d2-b362-e860c1918b06)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v06](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/54d7cc96-5129-450a-aef4-73197f9bc09d)\n\n* **Derived From** [Hunter AWRA Hydrological Response Variables (HRV)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a84b2431-24e3-4537-ae50-84f4e955ebdc)\n\n* **Derived From** [GEODATA 9 second DEM and D8: Digital Elevation Model Version 3 and Flow Direction Grid 2008](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ebcf6ca2-513a-4ec7-9323-73508c5d7b93)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-L simulation nodes_v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ae5129b2-bc29-4317-b72c-fe554fe7d315)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v04](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e8a2d577-c5c5-4e2c-b0fa-53e4b2d4a034)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R Gauge Station Cross Sections v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/93fbc2b9-463c-42f6-8817-cb45a54ee28e)\n\n* **Derived From** [Gippsland Project boundary](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/27413de5-d13a-4231-ac79-fc77f4cbb5f7)\n\n* **Derived From** [Natural Resource Management (NRM) Regions 2010](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1d54e38f-4051-4f0c-a350-c7dbd8eba65b)\n\n* **Derived From** [BA All Regions BILO cells in subregions shapefile](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/08933408-de61-4eb0-ab41-a6ff59f92a96)\n\n* **Derived From** [Hunter Surface Water data v2 20140724](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1934f57d-c6d6-43d1-abcd-1cf957f3e7e2)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R River Reaches Simulation v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/43f10e76-4541-433a-8b3c-deed9655ce05)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-L simulation nodes v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9e947329-d7ca-4e83-a5a9-5581a8731dd5)\n\n* **Derived From** [GEODATA TOPO 250K Series 3, File Geodatabase format (.gdb)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/96ebf889-f726-4967-9964-714fb57d679b)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R Irrigation Area Extents and Crop Types v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/90013748-6247-47ad-bddb-07a9c2d857cd)\n\n* **Derived From** [GEODATA TOPO 250K Series 3](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a0650f18-518a-4b99-a553-44f82f28bb5f)\n\n* **Derived From** [NSW Catchment Management Authority Boundaries 20130917](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0dc4272e-c081-4ed4-9645-aa336ffacd85)\n\n* **Derived From** [Geological Provinces - Full Extent](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0a064b3b-2a1e-4672-80d9-03333be67aad)\n\n* **Derived From** [BA SYD selected GA TOPO 250K data plus added map features](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ba5feac2-b35a-4611-82da-5b6213777069)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN gridded daily PET from 1973-2102 v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ad969062-dd2f-436b-b4a0-de57b2c120d5)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional_Assessment_Programme_Catchment Scale Land Use of Australia - 2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6f72f73c-8a61-4ae9-b8b5-3f67ec918826)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v03](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/96dbf469-5463-4f4d-8fad-4214c97e5aac)\n\n* **Derived From** [IQQM Model Simulation Regulated Rivers NSW DPI HUN 20150615](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d6e8c6f0-08bf-4ca6-bbef-6ae0d79c34ce)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R calibration catchments v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d419aae0-1cb3-48a8-82de-941398a80e3a)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v05](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/25f89049-839d-4736-bd81-97d8e8a40f8e)\n\n* **Derived From** [BILO Gridded Climate Data: Daily Climate Data for each year from 1900 to 2012](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7aaf0621-a0e5-4b01-9333-53ebcb1f1c14)\n\n* **Derived From** [National Surface Water sites Hydstra](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/f7edc5e5-93ee-4527-bed5-a118b4017623)\n\n* **Derived From** [Selected streamflow gauges within and near the Hunter subregion](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e83b0500-6254-47e1-b103-5e6b5961fe6f)\n\n* **Derived From** [ASRIS Continental-scale soil property predictions 2001](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/632c7249-ec00-4ccb-8758-f9026aeec53e)\n\n* **Derived From** [Hunter Surface Water data extracted 20140718](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/8c2e867b-ee7d-44f5-90b0-dd46677fedac)\n\n* **Derived From** [Mean Annual Climate Data of Australia 1981 to 2012](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/02418c67-f8bb-48a8-88a3-2a5c6b485f78)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R calibration nodes v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/f2da394a-3d08-4cf4-8c24-bf7751ea06a1)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN future climate rainfall v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4e4420e8-7d42-43bc-a63d-6ca3f07d8036)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-LR Model v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/670de516-30c5-4724-bd76-8ff4a42ca7a5)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-L ASRIS soil properties v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d8091c0a-5fdc-4f6a-8b61-b1e6cc7c3ace)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRAR restricted input 01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/89bb128a-3485-4347-a6f5-b8c8587de23b)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0fd0d820-30b3-451f-a126-a50040426999)\n\n* **Derived From** [Bioregional Assessment areas v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e414b1b3-c42e-42e9-9cc4-2093054aa35f)\n\n* **Derived From** [Victoria - Seamless Geology 2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/2872d02e-66cb-42b6-9e5a-63abc8ad871b)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-L Site Station Cross Sections v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fe84ef18-9ce0-4570-892b-f97f681ce4b8)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R simulation catchments v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/845f31df-5027-4ad7-9b2f-1fb03a874ad8)\n\n* **Derived From** [HUN AWRA-R Simulation Node Cross Sections v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1fd9e5fe-eec1-4a34-8b4c-6d95a54998df)\n\n* **Derived From** [Climate model 0.05x0.05 cells and cell centroids](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/3df5188b-f027-4d51-99a8-45e2800f29c8)\n\n

## **摘要**

本数据集由生物区域评估计划（Bioregional Assessment Programme）基于多源数据集衍生而来。本元数据声明的「谱系（Lineage）」字段中已标注所用源数据集，其衍生制作流程则见于「历史（History）」字段。

本数据集汇总了模拟得到的水文响应变量（Hydrological Response Variable, HRV）的变异性与气候年际变异性的对比结果，该对比结果曾被用作风险指示指标。例如，若要理解模拟得到的枯水日数增长的实际意义，结合气候驱动下枯水日数的年际变异性背景进行分析将更具参考价值。换言之，模拟得到的枯水日数增长，究竟是额外煤炭资源开发导致的变化落在了长期径流情势的自然变异性范围内，还是可能使该水文系统脱离当前气候下的天然水文变异性区间？

研究采用了基准情景下，额外煤炭资源开发导致的枯水日数最大增长量与枯水日数年际变异性的比值，以此为模拟得到的变化提供参考背景。若该最大变化量相较于气候驱动的年际变异性较小（例如基准情景下枯水日数区间为20~50天，增长量仅为3天），则枯水日数变化带来的影响风险通常较低。若该最大变化量与气候驱动的年际变异性相当甚至更大（例如基准情景下枯水日数区间为20~50天，增长量达200天），则依赖该水源的景观类型与相关资产将面临更高的影响风险。据此，将年际变异性相当或更大的变化判定为存在风险。但额外煤炭资源开发带来的变化是累积性的，因此即便变化量小于年际变异性，也并非完全不存在风险。本次年际变异性对比的结果仅可作为风险指示指标。

## **数据集历史**

本数据集基于1000组水文响应变量（HRV）模拟结果与气候输入数据生成。研究针对各HRV计算了其变异性与气候驱动的年际变异性的比值。本次年际变异性对比的结果仅可作为风险指示指标。

## **数据集引用**

生物区域评估计划（2017）《HUN 模型变异性与年际变异性对比》，生物区域评估衍生数据集，2019年3月13日查阅，http://data.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/dataset/1c0a19f9-98c2-4d92-956d-dd764aaa10f9.

## **数据集溯源**

* **衍生自** [新南威尔士州河流类型空间图层](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/06fb694b-d2f1-4338-ab65-a707c02f11d7)
* **衍生自** [SYD ALL气候数据统计摘要](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/b0a6ccf1-395d-430e-adf1-5068f8371dea)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R观测蓄水量 Glenbawn大坝与Glennies Creek大坝](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9c2dccdb-ef46-48c7-bfe1-946ab57645e5)
* **衍生自** [猎人河盐度计划排放数据 新南威尔士州环保局2006-2012](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1647c153-5120-4c64-a5e8-6a1b4b0b4e4b)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R模拟节点v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fda20928-d486-49d2-b362-e860c1918b06)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估区域v06](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/54d7cc96-5129-450a-aef4-73197f9bc09d)
* **衍生自** [猎人河水文响应变量（HRV）](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a84b2431-24e3-4537-ae50-84f4e955ebdc)
* **衍生自** [GEODATA 9秒分辨率数字高程模型（DEM）与D8流向网格：数字高程模型版本3与流向网格2008](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ebcf6ca2-513a-4ec7-9323-73508c5d7b93)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-L模拟节点v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ae5129b2-bc29-4317-b72c-fe554fe7d315)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估区域v04](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e8a2d577-c5c5-4e2c-b0fa-53e4b2d4a034)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R监测站断面v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/93fbc2b9-463c-42f6-8817-cb45a54ee28e)
* **衍生自** [吉普斯兰项目边界](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/27413de5-d13a-4231-ac79-fc77f4cbb5f7)
* **衍生自** [自然资源管理（Natural Resource Management, NRM）区域2010](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1d54e38f-4051-4f0c-a350-c7dbd8eba65b)
* **衍生自** [子区域BILO单元格形状文件 全区域BA](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/08933408-de61-4eb0-ab41-a6ff59f92a96)
* **衍生自** [猎人地表水数据v2 20140724](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1934f57d-c6d6-43d1-abcd-1cf957f3e7e2)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R河道段模拟v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/43f10e76-4541-433a-8b3c-deed9655ce05)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-L模拟节点v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/9e947329-d7ca-4e83-a5a9-5581a8731dd5)
* **衍生自** [GEODATA TOPO 250K系列3 文件地理数据库格式(.gdb)](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/96ebf889-f726-4967-9964-714fb57d679b)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R灌溉区域范围与作物类型v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/90013748-6247-47ad-bddb-07a9c2d857cd)
* **衍生自** [GEODATA TOPO 250K系列3](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/a0650f18-518a-4b99-a553-44f82f28bb5f)
* **衍生自** [新南威尔士州流域管理局边界 20130917](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0dc4272e-c081-4ed4-9645-aa336ffacd85)
* **衍生自** [地质省 全范围](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0a064b3b-2a1e-4672-80d9-03333be67aad)
* **衍生自** [BA SYD所选GA TOPO 250K数据及新增地图要素](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ba5feac2-b35a-4611-82da-5b6213777069)
* **衍生自** [HUN 1973-2102逐日潜在蒸散发（PET）网格化数据v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/ad969062-dd2f-436b-b4a0-de57b2c120d5)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估计划 澳大利亚集水区尺度土地利用2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/6f72f73c-8a61-4ae9-b8b5-3f67ec918826)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估区域v03](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/96dbf469-5463-4f4d-8fad-4214c97e5aac)
* **衍生自** [新南威尔士州primary industries部HUN区域受控河流IQQM模型模拟 20150615](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d6e8c6f0-08bf-4ca6-bbef-6ae0d79c34ce)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R率定集水区v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d419aae0-1cb3-48a8-82de-941398a80e3a)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估区域v05](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/25f89049-839d-4736-bd81-97d8e8a40f8e)
* **衍生自** [BILO网格化气候数据：1900-2012年逐年逐日气候数据](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/7aaf0621-a0e5-4b01-9333-53ebcb1f1c14)
* **衍生自** [全国地表水站点Hydstra数据集](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/f7edc5e5-93ee-4527-bed5-a118b4017623)
* **衍生自** [猎人子区域内及周边的选定流量监测站](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e83b0500-6254-47e1-b103-5e6b5961fe6f)
* **衍生自** [澳大利亚土壤与景观信息系统（ASRIS）2001年大陆尺度土壤属性预测数据集](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/632c7249-ec00-4ccb-8758-f9026aeec53e)
* **衍生自** [20140718提取的猎人地表水数据](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/8c2e867b-ee7d-44f5-90b0-dd46677fedac)
* **衍生自** [1981-2012年澳大利亚年均气候数据](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/02418c67-f8bb-48a8-88a3-2a5c6b485f78)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R率定节点v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/f2da394a-3d08-4cf4-8c24-bf7751ea06a1)
* **衍生自** [HUN未来气候降雨量v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/4e4420e8-7d42-43bc-a63d-6ca3f07d8036)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-LR模型v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/670de516-30c5-4724-bd76-8ff4a42ca7a5)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-L ASRIS土壤属性v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/d8091c0a-5fdc-4f6a-8b61-b1e6cc7c3ace)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRAR受限输入01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/89bb128a-3485-4347-a6f5-b8c8587de23b)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估区域v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/0fd0d820-30b3-451f-a126-a50040426999)
* **衍生自** [生物区域评估区域v02](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/e414b1b3-c42e-42e9-9cc4-2093054aa35f)
* **衍生自** [维多利亚州 无缝地质数据2014](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/2872d02e-66cb-42b6-9e5a-63abc8ad871b)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-L监测站断面v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/fe84ef18-9ce0-4570-892b-f97f681ce4b8)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R模拟集水区v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/845f31df-5027-4ad7-9b2f-1fb03a874ad8)
* **衍生自** [HUN AWRA-R模拟节点断面v01](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/1fd9e5fe-eec1-4a34-8b4c-6d95a54998df)
* **衍生自** [0.05x0.05分辨率气候模型单元格及单元格质心](https://data.gov.au/data/dataset/3df5188b-f027-4d51-99a8-45e2800f29c8)