MEASUREMENT OF FORECAST SKILL ... A NECESSARY PART OF OUR JOB

Measurement of forecast skill (MOFS) should be an important part of each forecaster's work routine. Its significance will likely increase further as we move toward implementation and use of new technology in the 1990's. Some of the products NWS forecasters spend a good part of shift work time preparing are the zone forecasts (ZFP's). They are the "heart" of the public forecast program. Because of their importance, a measurement of forecast skill for this product is highly desirable. Continuous tracking of the product's quality will assist in determining whether its quality is improving, staying the same, or deteriorating. It will also assist in improving our understanding of the atmosphere by answering the question of how good or poor the methodology used in product preparation was. In general, if the forecast's PDFS was high, the methodology and scientific thought processes were most likely on target. If the opposite occurs, then either something was missed, was assumed incorrectly, or wrong methodologies were employed. Of course, there is always the "right for the wrong reasons" scenario. Let's just look at that as "extra credit!" 1988 Measurement of forecast skill (MOFS) NWS (National Weather Service) NWC (National Water Center) Library Public Domain 1931