STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS FOR ORGANIZATIONAL–INSTITUTIONAL AND FINANCIAL–ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION OF THE NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEM: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN

In the context of the modern global economy, the effectiveness of a national innovation system (NIS) has become a decisive factor in ensuring long-term competitiveness and sustainable economic growth. This article examines the priority strategic directions for the organizational–institutional and financial–economic transformation of Uzbekistan’s national innovation system. The study integrates institutional analysis with empirical data covering the period 2015–2023 and applies forecasting tools, including linear trend models and a multifactor regression model, to assess innovation performance for 2024–2027. The results reveal a structural imbalance between the rapid quantitative expansion of innovation infrastructure and the weakening qualitative indicators related to human capital, R&D institutions, and investment intensity. While time-series trend analysis suggests potential stagnation of innovation activity, the multifactor regression model demonstrates that stabilizing key drivers—scientific institutions, human capital quality, and investment share—can generate sustained growth in innovation output. The findings highlight the critical role of coordinated institutional reforms, public–private partnerships, venture financing mechanisms, and human capital development in strengthening the national innovation ecosystem. The paper provides policy-relevant recommendations aimed at enhancing innovation efficiency and ensuring the transition from extensive to intensive innovation-driven growth in Uzbekistan.