Results of best-fitting multivariate models.

In this article I test whether students’ educational expectations respond to prior academic performance and whether this responsiveness varies by socio-economic status (SES). The responsiveness of high-SES students’ expectations may be lower as suggested by the compensatory advantage mechanism or higher because of alienation processes of low-SES students. However, the association between achievement and expectations may be in part spurious because of unobserved social and genetic confounders. This issue is largely ignored by previous research. Therefore, in this paper I estimate behavioral genetic twin models that take into account the possible confounding of the responsiveness of expectations to performance by unobserved genetic and social influences. While students’ expectations respond to prior performance, this responsiveness is reduced by more than half once unobserved genetic and social confounders are accounted for. Also, SES differences in responsiveness to performance are completely accounted for by high-SES students’ expectations being less responsive to prior levels of cognitive ability. So, this study shows the relevance of taking different types of confounding into account when studying the formation of educational expectations.