Replication Data for: Party’s rating and electoral forecasting: the case of French Presidential in 2022

This article hinges around the updated version of the electoral forecasting model devised by Lafay, Facchini and Auberger (2007) for the French presidential elections of 2022. Lafay and al. argued that the Socialist Party’s ratings were a reliable tool for predicting vote distribution between the left and the right at the second round of the elections. Socialist Party ratings alone cannot, however, account for Emmanuel Macron’s victory at the 2017 elections. As informative/useful as party ratings may be to predict electoral results, a number of adjustments remain necessary. Based on party ratings the indicators proposed in this article suggest the following first-round results for April 2022: Emmanuel Macron (29%), Valérie Pécresse (24.2%), Marine Le Pen (18.7%) and 24.7% for the mainstream and far left. While a Macron- Pécresse second round favors Emmanuel Macron, the final result ultimately depends on vote transfers between the left and the outgoing President. In a scenario where the left abstains and Marine Le Pen's election rallies to the candidate of the right (LR), Valérie Pécresse might clinch victory with a vote tally of around 51,58%.