Replication Data for: Party’s rating and electoral forecasting: the case of French Presidential in 2022

This article hinges around the updated version of the electoral forecasting model devised by Lafay, Facchini and Auberger (2007) for the French presidential elections of 2022. Lafay and al. argued that the Socialist Party’s ratings were a reliable tool for predicting vote distribution between the left and the right at the second round of the elections. Socialist Party ratings alone cannot, however, account for Emmanuel Macron’s victory at the 2017 elections. As informative/useful as party ratings may be to predict electoral results, a number of adjustments remain necessary. Based on party ratings the indicators proposed in this article suggest the following first-round results for April 2022: Emmanuel Macron (29%), Valérie Pécresse (24.2%), Marine Le Pen (18.7%) and 24.7% for the mainstream and far left. While a Macron- Pécresse second round favors Emmanuel Macron, the final result ultimately depends on vote transfers between the left and the outgoing President. In a scenario where the left abstains and Marine Le Pen's election rallies to the candidate of the right (LR), Valérie Pécresse might clinch victory with a vote tally of around 51,58%.本研究围绕拉费（Lafay）、法奇尼（Facchini）与奥贝热（Auberger）于2007年提出的选举预测模型的2022年法国总统选举更新版本展开。拉费等人指出，社会党（Socialist Party）得票率是预测选举第二轮左右两翼选票分布的可靠指标。然而仅依靠社会党得票率，无法解释埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）在2017年总统选举中的胜选原因。尽管政党得票率在预测选举结果方面具备参考价值，但仍需进行多项调整。基于政党得票率，本研究提出的指标给出了2022年4月法国总统选举首轮的预测结果：埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）得票率29%、瓦莱丽·佩克雷斯（Valérie Pécresse）24.2%、玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）18.7%，主流左翼与极左翼合计得票率24.7%。若第二轮选举为马克龙与佩克雷斯对决，则马克龙占据优势，但最终结果仍取决于左翼与现任总统之间的选票转移情况。在左翼选民弃权且玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）的支持者转向右翼候选人共和党（LR）的场景下，瓦莱丽·佩克雷斯有望以约51.58%的得票率胜选。