Influência dos fundos de investimento na formação das cotações do milho na Bolsa de Cereais de Chicago

This article sought to detect the increasing influence of the positioning of investment funds in the commodities market based on the behavior of corn trading on the Chicago Cereals Exchange (CBOT). So to answer the problem: how big is the influence of investment funds in the formation of corn prices at CBOT? The objective was to verify, within the period from 2006 to 2009, how much the performance of these funds interferes in the formation of cereal prices, as the quotations in Chicago serve as a guide to the formation of cereal prices in the world physical market and in Brazil in particular, thus impacting on regional development. The adopted methodology was inferential analysis of the data, from correlation and multiple regression analyzes, using Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r); the coefficient of determination R2; and the adjusted determination coefficient, in addition to regression analysis based on the stepwise estimation. In the results obtained, it is highlighted that, when analyzing only the positions of speculators, investment funds and small investors, without the presence of commercial investors, 45.3% of the formation of the future price of corn can be explained by the negotiation of these groups, where the investment funds’ participation is significant.