Turning the tide: A 2°C increase in heat tolerance can halve climate change induced losses in four cold-adapted kelp species

Kelp forests are susceptible to climate change as their sessile nature and low dispersal capacity hinders tracking of suitable conditions. The emergence of a wide array of approaches to increasing thermal tolerance seeks to change the outlook of biodiversity in a changing climate but lacks clear targets of impactful thermal resilience. Here, we utilize species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the potential of enhanced thermal tolerance to buffer the effects of climate change on cold-adapted kelp species: Saccharina latissima, Alaria esculenta, Laminaria hyperborea, and Laminaria digitata. For each species, we compared a baseline model - where the thermal niche remained unchanged - to models where the simulated maximum sea surface temperature tolerance was increased by 1-5°C. These models were projected into three climate change scenarios: sustainability (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, Paris Agreement), regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and fossil-fuel development (SSP 5-8.5)...., , , # Data from: Turning the tide: A 2°C increase in heat tolerance can halve climate change induced losses in four cold-adapted kelp species

Access this repo on Dryad: [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.f4qrfj751](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.f4qrfj751)

## Description of the data and file structure

Primary script *Kelpmodel_submit.R* collects occurrence data and environmental layers, produces a baseline SDM in the present, projects it in the future, and implements simulated tolerance increases from 1-5 degrees C. Each species results are a separate run of the script. The \"outputs\" folder is provided populated with the results associated with the manuscript as an example (results_species_2024-09-25_). Our results are provided and described in the published article and its supplements. Extension to species not included in our analysis is possible by updating the \"*my_species*\" variable and calculating an appropriate transition function via iterative review of the thermal response curves prod...,