Lineage range estimation method reveals fine-scale endemism linked to Pleistocene stability in Australian rainforest herpetofauna

Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen, shifted, and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles, and through this shifting landscape, current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia, areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape, support persistence of lineages through time, and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted, and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However, it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism, because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages, which is informed by the ecological niche of a ...随着更新世（Pleistocene）气候旋回，物种种群及群落的适宜生境区域持续生成、变迁乃至消失；在这片动态变化的景观中，现存生物多样性得以延续至今。进化避难所（Evolutionary Refugia）即该动态景观中相对稳定的生境区域，可支撑演化支系长期存续，因此对生物多样性的积累与维持至关重要。特有分布区（Areas of Endemism）是生物多样性得以存续的避难所区域的指示标志，而种内演化支系的特有性尤其与更新世晚期的生境稳定性紧密相关。然而，由于遗传分析的空间采样密度通常远低于物种记录的覆盖度，要稳定估算种内演化支系的地理分布范围并进而推断系统地理学特有性（phylogeographic endemism），始终是一项挑战。本研究提出一种全新的建模技术，用以模拟种内演化支系的地理分布，其构建依托于某一...的生态位（Ecological Niche）。