Climate-Driven Distribution Modelling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly (Parnassius glacialis) for Biodiversity Conservation

This study addresses a pressing issue in conservation science: the vulnerability of high-altitude, range-restricted insect species to climate change. The Glacial Apollo (Parnassius glacialis) is a butterfly of significant ecological and aesthetic value, yet little is known about its response to projected climate scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, our work identifies the current and future suitable habitats for P. glacialis, reveals key environmental drivers (notably temperature seasonality), and forecasts distributional shifts under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. These results carry important implications for developing targeted conservation strategies and climate-adaptive management policies in mountainous ecosystems.