Importance of agronomic traits in the individual selection process of sugarcane as determined using logistic regression

ABSTRACT. The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of agronomic traits during the selection of sugarcane (Saccharum spp.), as well as to evaluate the potential for using logistic regression and decision trees to identify the best genotypes. A total of 7,719 seedlings of 128 half-sib families were evaluated during the first test phase (T1), and 659 clones were selected for the second (T2). Logistic regression was applied to both populations. The number of stalks, bud prominence and length of the internode were the most important selection traits in the T1 population. The plant vigor, stalk diameter and stalk height were the most important selection traits in the T2 population. There were 174 individuals selected when using the mass selection method in T1 and 113 individuals in T2, whereas a logistic regression selected 153 individuals in T1 and 79 in T2. The apparent error rates of the logistic models fitted to the selections in T1 and T2 were 0.8 and 5.10%, respectively. By using a decision tree, 67 clones were selected among the most productive ones in phase T2. Therefore, the formulation of decision trees is highly applicable to identifying potential clones during the initial phases of breeding programs.