Estimating Firecracker Emissions Through Air Quality Index (AQI) Models: A Comprehensive Guide

Firecracker usage during festivals significantly affects air quality, evident through spikes in the Air Quality Index (AQI). This study outlines a model for estimating firecracker quantities based on observed AQI levels. By analyzing historical AQI data, emission factors, and baseline pollution, we calculate excess AQI attributable to firecracker emissions. Our findings indicate that if AQI levels remain consistently elevated, the total worth of firecrackers used in India could range from approximately ₹20.28 billion to ₹60.86 billion, equating to about 20.28 million kg to 60.86 million kg of firecrackers. Specifically, in New Delhi, the estimated total quantity ranges between 263.9 kg and 791.7 kg, translating to a financial impact of ₹263,900 to ₹791,700. These estimations highlight the importance of comprehensive data on firecracker emissions and usage patterns across regions to refine models and inform public policy. Future research should focus on detailed assessments of these variables to mitigate air pollution during peak usage periods, balancing cultural practices with public health considerations.节日期间燃放烟花爆竹会对空气质量造成显著影响，这可从空气质量指数（Air Quality Index，简称AQI）的峰值中得到印证。本研究构建了一套基于实测AQI数据估算烟花爆竹燃放总量的模型。本研究通过分析历史AQI数据、排放因子以及基准污染水平，计算得出由烟花爆竹排放所引发的额外AQI增量。研究结果显示，若AQI持续处于高位，印度全国烟花爆竹燃放总市值约在202.8亿至608.6亿卢比之间，对应燃放总量约为2028万千克至6086万千克。具体而言，新德里地区的烟花爆竹估算燃放总量介于263.9千克至791.7千克之间，对应的经济影响为26.39万至79.17万卢比。上述估算结果凸显了获取各区域烟花爆竹排放与使用模式全面数据的重要性，这有助于优化模型并为公共政策制定提供依据。未来研究应聚焦于对这些变量开展精细化评估，以在高峰燃放时段缓解空气污染，同时兼顾文化习俗与公共健康需求。