Alibaba and China outlook

China boasts the fastest growing GDP of all developed nations. Neighboring regions will have the largest middle class in history. China is building transport infrastructure to take advantage. Companies that capture market share in this region will be the largest and best performing over the next decade. Macro Tailwinds 1) China GDP is the fastest growing of any major country with expected 5-6% over the next decade. If businesses (Alibaba, Tencent, etc..) maintain flat market share, that alone will drive 5-6% over the next decade. This is already higher than JP Morgans expectation (from their 13f filings) that the US market will perform between -5% and +5% over this coming decade. 2) The Southeast Asia Region contains about 5 billion people. China is constructing the One Best One Road which will be completed by 2030. This will grant their businesses access to the fastest and largest growing middle class in human history. Over the next 10+ years this region will be home to the largest middle class in history, potentially over 10x that of North America and Europe, based on stock price in Google Sheets. Increasing average Chinese income. Chinese average income has more than doubled over the last decade. Having sustained the least economic damage from the virus, this trend is expected to continue. At this pace the average Chinese citizen salary will be at 50% of the average US by 2030 (with stock price in Excel provided by Finsheet via Finnhub Stock Api), with the difference being there are 4x more Chinese. Thus a market potential of almost 2x the US over the next decade. The Southeast Asia Region now contains the largest total number of billionaires, this number is expected to increase at an increasing rate as the region continues to develop. Over the next 10 years the largest trading route ever assembled will be completed, and China will be the primary provider of goods to 5b+ people 2013 North America was home to the largest number of billionaires. This reversed with Asia over the following 5 years. This separation is expected to continue at an increasing rate. Why does this matter? Over the next 10 years the largest trading route ever assembled will be completed, and China will be the primary provider of goods to 5b+ people Companies that can easily access all customers in the world will perform best. This is good news for Apple, Microsoft, and Disney. Disney stock price in Excel right now is $70. But not for Amazon or Google which at first may sound contrary as the expectation is that Amazon "will take over the world". However one cannot do that without first conquering China. Firms like Alibaba and Tencent will have easy access to the global infrastructure being built by China in an attempt to speed up and ease trade in that region. The following guide shows how to get stock price in Excel. We will explore companies using a: 1) Past 2) Present (including financial statements) 3) Future 4) Story/Tailwind Method to find investing ideas in these regions. The tailwind is currently largest in the Asia region with 6%+ GDP growth according to the latest SEC form 4 from Edgar Company Search. This is relevant as investments in this region have a greater margin of safety; investing in a company that maintains flat market share should increase about 6% per year as the market growth size is so significant. The next article I will explore Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), and why I recently purchased a large position during the recent Ant Financial Crisis.中国是所有发达国家中GDP增速最快的国家，其周边区域将拥有人类历史上规模最大的中产阶层。中国正大力建设交通基础设施以把握这一机遇，能够在该区域抢占市场份额的企业，将在未来十年成长为规模最大、表现最优的企业。 ### 宏观利好因素 1. 中国GDP增速位居全球主要经济体之首，未来十年预计将维持5%-6%的增速。若企业（阿里巴巴（Alibaba）、腾讯（Tencent）等）能够保持市场份额不变，仅此一项就能在未来十年带来5%-6%的增长。这一增速已高于摩根大通（JP Morgan）在其13F文件中给出的预期：未来十年美国市场的表现将介于-5%至+5%之间。 2. 东南亚区域拥有约50亿人口。中国正在建设“一带一路”（原文疑似笔误，标准译法为One Belt and Road，原文写为One Best One Road），预计将于2030年完工，这将为中国企业打开通往人类历史上规模增长最快、体量最大的中产阶层市场的通道。根据谷歌表格（Google Sheets）中的股价数据，未来10年及以上，该区域将拥有人类历史上规模最大的中产阶层，其体量或将达到北美与欧洲总和的10倍以上。 居民收入持续提升。过去十年，中国居民人均收入增幅超过一倍。由于中国受新冠疫情冲击造成的经济损失相对最小，这一增长趋势有望延续。按照当前增速，到2030年中国居民人均薪资将达到美国居民的50%（数据来自Finsheet通过Finnhub股票API（Finnhub Stock Api）提供的Excel表格股价信息），而中国人口数量是美国的4倍，因此未来十年中国的市场潜力将接近美国的2倍。 当前东南亚区域的亿万富翁总人数已位居全球之首，随着该区域持续发展，这一数量预计将以递增的速度增长。未来十年，人类有史以来规模最大的贸易通道将建成，中国将成为50亿以上人口的主要商品供应方。2013年，北美是全球亿万富翁人数最多的区域，这一格局在随后五年被亚洲逆转，且这种差距预计将以递增的速度持续扩大。 这意味着什么？未来十年，人类有史以来规模最大的贸易通道将建成，中国将成为50亿以上人口的主要商品供应方。能够便捷触达全球所有客户的企业将表现最优，这对苹果（Apple）、微软（Microsoft）和迪士尼（Disney）而言是利好消息。当前迪士尼的Excel表格股价为70美元。但这对于亚马逊（Amazon）和谷歌（Google）而言并非利好——尽管市场普遍预期亚马逊将"will take over the world"，但如果不先拿下中国市场，这一目标根本无法实现。而阿里巴巴、腾讯等企业则能够便捷地使用中国正在建设的、旨在加速并简化该区域贸易的全球基础设施。 下文将介绍如何在Excel中获取股价数据。我们将通过以下四种方法挖掘这些区域的投资标的：1）过往表现法；2）当前状况法（含财务报表分析）；3）未来前景法；4）利好因素法。根据Edgar公司搜索平台（Edgar Company Search）最新提交的SEC表格4（SEC Form 4）数据，当前亚洲区域的GDP增速超过6%，是全球利好因素最强的区域。这一点至关重要，因为在该区域投资拥有更高的安全边际：由于市场体量增长显著，只要企业能够维持市场份额不变，其股价每年就能实现约6%的增长。在下一篇文章中，我将分析阿里巴巴（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA，Alibaba (NYSE: BABA)），以及我为何在近期蚂蚁集团危机（Ant Financial Crisis）期间大举建仓该公司股票。