Texas climate, climate change, and impacts on inflows to bays and estuaries evaluated through the use of hydrologic model simulations driven by downscaled global climate model simulations and projections

Downscaled climate and hydrology projections, along with the corresponding historical observations, were acquired from UC Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s web service. One-sixteenth scale Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projection sets of selected hydrological variables were acquired for all available runs of emissions paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Chosen variables and parameters of the projections were shown to be most capable of predicting future trends in freshwater inflows along the Texas Gulf Coast, while allowing for the region’s seasonal specific precipitation trends. Selected variables: average surface air temperature, baseflow, rainfall rate, runoff , soil moisture layer 1, actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, and relative humidity. Basin selection: Along-coast differences in climate are represented by differences in small coastal drainage basins surrounding Houston (northeast) and Kingsville (southwest). Along-coast differences in riverine inflows will be represented by the Sabine-Neches Rivers (northeast) and the Nueces River (southwest). Differences related to the size of drainage basins will be represented by the Lavaca River and the Brazos River, both of which discharge along the central Texas coast. Representative basins: Houston area: Outlet cell: 29.812500,-95.062500 (Trib area ~10856 km^2) Latitude bounds: (29.5, 30.75) Longitude bounds: (-96.125, -95.0) Area within bounds: ~15039 km^2 Kingsville area: Outlet cell: 27.312500,-97.562500 (Trib area ~11479 km2) Latitude bounds: (27.125, 28.0) Longitude bounds: (-99.0, -97.5) Area within bounds: ~14387 km^2 Sabine-Neches: Outlet cell: 29.812500,-93.937500 (Trib area ~55454 km2) Latitude bounds: (29.75, 33.375) Longitude bounds: (-96.5, -93.125) Area within bounds: ~128880 km^2 Nueces: Outlet cell: 28.5625, -96.5625 (Trib area approx..40977 km2) Latitude bounds: (27.625, 30.125) Longitude bounds: (-100.5, -97.375) Area within bounds: ~84586 km^2 Lavaca: Outlet cell: 28.5625, -96.5625 (Trib area ~7083 km^2) Latitude bounds: (28.5, 29.75) Longitude bounds: (-97.25, -96.375) Area within bounds: ~11814 km^2 Brazos: Outlet cell: 30.4375, -96.3125 (Trib area ~ 102771 km^2); Latitude bounds: (30.375, 34.625) Longitude bounds: (-103.875, -96.25) Area within bounds: ~337,877 km^2. The dataset includes five R dataframes (.RData) and plots for each model run/location/variable combination, specifying the quantiles (10th to 90th) for each location and model run (.Bdf); the sum or average function for each location and model run (sRCP); a timeseries for each location and model run (.tsdf), quantiles (0:5:100) (.qnts), and daily to annual averaged values (.aRCP). Also included are a listing of the 32 numerical models considered and the code used to source and analyze the data.本数据集的降尺度气候与水文预测数据及对应历史观测资料，均取自加州大学劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室（UC Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory）的网络服务接口。我们获取了针对排放情景RCP4.5与RCP8.5下所有可用模拟集合的、1/16分辨率的耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）筛选水文变量预测集。本次筛选的预测变量与参数，经验证可最优拟合德克萨斯湾沿岸淡水径流的未来变化趋势，同时可兼顾该区域季节性降水的特有变化特征。 选定的水文变量包括：地表平均气温、基流、降雨率、地表径流、第一层土壤湿度、实际蒸散发、潜在蒸散发以及相对湿度。 流域遴选原则：通过休斯顿（东北部）与金斯维尔（西南部）周边小型沿海汇水流域（drainage basin）的气候差异，表征德克萨斯湾沿岸的沿海气候分异；通过萨宾-内奇斯河（东北部）与努埃塞斯河（西南部）的径流量差异，表征沿岸河流径流的空间分异；通过拉瓦卡河与布拉索斯河——二者均在德克萨斯中部沿海入海——的流域尺度差异，表征流域尺寸对径流特征的影响。 各代表流域详情如下： 1. 休斯顿区域：出口格点坐标为29.812500, -95.062500（汇水流域面积约10856 km²）；纬度范围：(29.5, 30.75)；经度范围：(-96.125, -95.0)；格点覆盖区域面积约15039 km²。 2. 金斯维尔区域：出口格点坐标为27.312500, -97.562500（汇水流域面积约11479 km²）；纬度范围：(27.125, 28.0)；经度范围：(-99.0, -97.5)；格点覆盖区域面积约14387 km²。 3. 萨宾-内奇斯河流域：出口格点坐标为29.812500, -93.937500（汇水流域面积约55454 km²）；纬度范围：(29.75, 33.375)；经度范围：(-96.5, -93.125)；格点覆盖区域面积约128880 km²。 4. 努埃塞斯河流域：出口格点坐标为28.5625, -96.5625（汇水流域面积约40977 km²）；纬度范围：(27.625, 30.125)；经度范围：(-100.5, -97.375)；格点覆盖区域面积约84586 km²。 5. 拉瓦卡河流域：出口格点坐标为28.5625, -96.5625（汇水流域面积约7083 km²）；纬度范围：(28.5, 29.75)；经度范围：(-97.25, -96.375)；格点覆盖区域面积约11814 km²。 6. 布拉索斯河流域：出口格点坐标为30.4375, -96.3125（汇水流域面积约102771 km²）；纬度范围：(30.375, 34.625)；经度范围：(-103.875, -96.25)；格点覆盖区域面积约337877 km²。 本数据集包含5个R语言数据框（.RData格式），以及针对每个模型模拟集合、站点与变量组合的可视化绘图结果。具体数据文件包括：各站点与模型模拟集合的10至90分位数数据（.Bdf文件）；各站点与模型模拟集合的求和或均值统计数据（sRCP文件）；各站点与模型模拟集合的时间序列数据（.tsdf文件）、0至100以5为步长的分位数数据（.qnts文件），以及日值转换为年平均值的统计数据（.aRCP文件）。此外，数据集还收录了本次研究涉及的32个数值模型清单，以及用于数据获取与分析的配套源代码。