Unraveling User Switching Dynamics in P2P Mobile Payments: Investigating Satisfaction and Trust in a Duopoly Market

Drawing on Expectancy-Disconfirmation Theory, this study investigates how transaction-based satisfaction, experience-based satisfaction, institution-based trust, and disposition to trust influence switching intentions, while also examining the parallel mediation of institution-based trust and disposition to trust in these relationships. Using a quantitative survey of MonCash users—Haiti’s leading P2P mobile payment service—we analyzed 529 responses through SPSS 27 for sociodemographic and AMOS 26 for structural equation modeling (SEM), both with and without control variables (CVs). Findings reveal that transaction-based satisfaction has an insignificant negative effect on switching intentions, while experience-based satisfaction shows an insignificant positive effect without CVs but an insignificant negative effect with CVs. Institution-based trust negatively affects switching intentions in both scenarios, whereas disposition to trust has an insignificant negative effect. Notably, only the indirect effect of experience-based satisfaction on switching intentions through disposition to trust is significant, showing a negative influence exclusively in the presence of CVs. These results provide nuanced insights into user retention and switching behavior in P2P mobile payment systems.