ConFire Model input/output for South America

ConFIRE input and output used in the submission of  Kelley et al. "Low Climatic Influence found in 2019 Amazonia Fires".

"input" dir including "amazon_inference_data-2002-MCDBA_obs-TERRA_M__T.csv", just contains a csv file of all common grid data in other "input" subdirectories, which can be used in "optimise_run_model/bayesian_inference.ipynb" notebook. The files in the subdirectories are then used to make gridded model output using "optimise_run_model/make_model_output.ipynb".

Output, also provided, is summerized in the files in "outputs/sampled_posterior_ConFire_solutions/constant_post_2018_full_2002_BG2020/"

The three files contain:

fire_summary_frequancy_of_counts.nc - Contains one spatial variable (long name "firecount frequency of occurrence") is the probability of a fire count (along the model_level_number dimension) at a particular month (time dimension) according to the models full posterior, \(P(y_j)\)(see papers supplementary). All months start on Jan 2001. 

fire_summary_precentile.nc -  Contains one spatial variable (long name "firecount at percentile"), the fire count at each percentile of the full posterior in 1% increments from 1-99% (along the model_level_number dimension). Note, by definition, the 0a nd 100% percentile is 0 and \(\infty \) .

fire_summary_observed_liklihood.nc - the position ( "variable_0") and p-value  ("variable") of MCD64A1 in the model posterior.

model_summary.nc - Summary of each variable of ConFire:

"burnt_area": burnt area or fire count summary, described as percentiles as per "fire_summary_precentile", but this time just assessing parameter uncertainty, i.e \(P(\beta | Y_s)\) in supplementary of paper.

All other variables describe different model controls in the same "burnt_area". Full information on how controls are constructed can be found in Kelley et al. (2019) with updates listed in supplementary of this paper.

"fuel_continuity", "moisture_content", "ignitions", "suppression" are the actual values of the control

"standard_<>" is the standard limitation imposed by the control.

"potential_<> is the potential limitation

"sensitivity_<> is the senstivity of fire to a particular control.

See Kelley et al. 2019 for the definition of limitation types and sensitivity

Kelley, D.I., Bistinas, I., Whitley, R. et al. How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 690–696 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0540-7