MILEX Panel

While some people perceive military spending as a guarantee of security and peace, others see it as a foolish endeavor that could spark arms races or armed conflict. This study adopts a pooled mean group approach to investigate the nexus between arms imports, military expenditure, and per capita GDP for a balanced panel of twenty-five of the top arms importers in the world from 2000 to 2021. We find that armed imports negatively impact GDP per capita, but military spending is beneficial over the long and short term. We also used the Dumitrescu Hurlin Granger causality test, which revealed a unidirectional causation between per capita GDP and military expenditure, and a unidirectional causal relationship from military spending to arms imports. The findings of this paper support the Keynesian and Wagnerian hypothesis that with an increase in state responsibilities, government spending and economic growth go hand in hand.尽管部分群体将军事开支视为国家安全与和平的保障，但另有观点认为此举实为愚蠢之举，甚至可能引发军备竞赛乃至武装冲突。本研究采用混合均值组（pooled mean group）方法，基于2000年至2021年全球25个主要武器进口国的平衡面板数据，探究武器进口、军事开支与人均国内生产总值（GDP）之间的内在关联。研究结果显示，武器进口对人均GDP存在负向影响，而军事开支无论在长期还是短期均对经济增长具有积极作用。本研究同时运用了杜米特雷斯库-赫尔林格兰杰因果检验（Dumitrescu Hurlin Granger causality test），结果表明人均GDP与军事开支之间存在单向因果关系，且军事开支对武器进口存在单向因果影响。本文的研究结果支持凯恩斯主义（Keynesian）与瓦格纳假说（Wagnerian hypothesis），即随着国家职能的拓展，政府开支与经济增长将协同并进。