Karfali-VAR Model Data (1999-2034)

This dataset provides economic indicators for the period 1999-2034, including historical data (1999-2025) and forecasts (2026-2034) generated using the Karfali-VAR Model.

Research Reference:

Title: Extended Research: Karfali-VAR-Model Forecasts and Sensitivity Tests 2026-2034
Author: Jaouad Karfali
https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=5180553
Data Sources
BEA: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP Growth)
EIA: U.S. Energy Information Administration (Oil Prices)
FRED: Federal Reserve Economic Data (S&P 500, Unemployment, Inflation, Interest Rates)
Variables
Year: Year of observation (1999-2034).
Numeric_Cycle: Economic cycle stage (1-9).
GDP_Growth (%): Annual GDP growth rate.
Oil_Price ($/barrel): Crude oil price per barrel.
S&P_500 (Year-End): S&P 500 closing value at the end of the year.
Unemployment (%): Annual unemployment rate.
Inflation (%): Annual inflation rate.
Interest_Rate (%): Central bank interest rate.
Usage
This dataset can be used for:

Economic forecasting and analysis.
Time series modeling and testing.
Policy analysis and scenario simulations.
License:
This dataset is open for research and academic use. Please cite the original SSRN research when using this data.