Simulating Uncertainties in Construction Projects with Chronographical Scheduling Logic

The more complex a project, the more attractive nontraditional project delivery methods like design-build or fast-tracking become with these delivery methods and uncertainty has to be explicitly integrated into the network calculations. Uncertainties assess levels of compliance with various constraints. This paper contributes to the existing body of knowledge by modeling diverse types of execution uncertainties, such as construction operation, execution process, and work with doubtful results, and by extending the traditional logic and modeling uncertainties using the chronographic time-scaled, point-to-point relations, production-based dynamic relations, and function dependencies between in-progress activities. The dependencies between activities can be related to the external scale (usually representing time) or an internal scale (usually representing quantity). Using the Monte Carlo simulation, the paper simulates the impact of construction operations, execution processes, and work with doubtful results. For companies, this approach represents scheduling constraints in a flexible manner and provides a feasible solution for modeling the complexity of real-world projects. - See more at: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29CO.1943-7862.0001212#sthash.lcospyaI.dpuf