Using adaptive traits to consider potential consequences of temporal variation in selection: male guppy colour through time and space

Temporal variation in selection is typically evaluated by estimating and comparing selection coefficients in natural populations. Meta-analyses of these coefficients have yielded important insights, but selection coefficients are limited in several respects, including low statistical power, imperfect fitness surrogates, and uncertainty regarding consequences for trait change. A complementary approach without these limitations is to examine temporal variation in adaptive traits themselves, which is mechanistically easier and more directly relevant to evolutionary consequences. We illustrate this approach by analyzing the colour patterns of male guppies, Poecilia reticulata, from each of six sites in Trinidad in each of 6 years. This system is particularly appropriate for our study because key aspects of colour variation are genetically-based and responsive to selection. However, although spatial patterns of colour variation have been extensively considered in this system, no study has ye...选择的时间动态通常通过估算并比较自然种群中的选择系数来评估。针对这些系数的元分析已取得了重要研究进展，但选择系数存在多方面局限：统计效力偏低、适合度替代指标不够完善，且难以确定其对性状演化的影响后果。而一种不受上述局限的互补研究路径，便是直接探究适应性性状本身的时间动态——这一方法在机制层面更易操作，且与演化后果的关联更为直接。我们以分析特立尼达6个采样点6年间的雄性孔雀鱼（Poecilia reticulata）体色图案为例，展示了这一研究方法。该研究体系尤为适配本研究，因为体色变异的核心特征具有遗传基础且可响应选择作用。然而，尽管该体系中关于体色变异的空间格局已有大量研究，但目前尚无任何一项研究……