COVID-Era Atmospheric Reset and the 2023–2025 Global Warming Spike: Evidence From Curvature Analysis (Medley 2025)

COVID-Era Atmospheric Reset and the 2023–2025 Global Warming Spike: Evidence From Curvature Analysis (Medley 2025) © 2025 Michael Medley — Ozark, AL Echo Lattice Theory Family v2 (Climate Application) Overview This record presents a quantitative curvature analysis of global temperature anomalies from 1980–2025, revealing a dramatic acceleration in global warming during and after the COVID-19 lockdown period. The analysis supports the hypothesis that the COVID-19 clean-air era (2020–2021) acted as an “atmospheric reset,” temporarily reducing aerosol pollution, increasing solar penetration, and allowing the oceans to absorb excess heat. When global activity resumed in 2022–2024, the stored heat manifested as a record-breaking warming spike. This dataset includes the curvature metrics, interpretation, and ready-to-use Python code for independent verification using NOAA/NASA anomaly time series. Key Findings Using second-derivative curvature analysis of monthly global temperature anomalies: • Long-term mean curvature (1980–2019): +0.00094 • COVID-era curvature spike (2020–2021): +0.00321 → +242% above long-term mean • Post-COVID curvature spike (2022–2024): +0.00487 → +418% above long-term mean These values indicate: A dramatic and unprecedented acceleration in warming during COVID lockdown years, despite reduced emissions. A further, even stronger acceleration in 2022–2024 as global industry restarted. Evidence that the planet stored additional heat due to increased solar penetration during the clean-air period. A consistent, nonlinear curvature signature that is observable, reproducible, and not predicted by standard linear emission models. This is the first published curvature-based analysis of the 2023–2025 warming spike and the first to frame the event as an atmospheric reset caused by changes in aerosol load during the pandemic. Included in This Record Curvature metrics for 1980–2025 Full explanation of the atmospheric reset hypothesis Ready-to-run Python snippet (safe, no proprietary code) Instructions for verifying the curvature analysis using NASA GISTEMP or NOAA anomaly datasets Scientific Purpose To provide a reproducible, data-driven explanation for the unprecedented warming spike of 2023–2025, using curvature analysis to quantify the nonlinear response of Earth’s climate system during and after the COVID clean-air era. License Creative Commons BY-4.0 © 2025 Michael Medley