Assessing the impact of non-tariff measures (SPS & TBT) on intra-ASEAN rice trade, 2016-2023

This Independent Study examines how Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) specifically Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) affect intra-ASEAN rice exports (HS 1006) during the period 2016–2023. The study mainly focuses on major rice-exporting countries, including Thailand, Viet Nam, and Myanmar, and key importing markets within ASEAN such as Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore. Using secondary data from UN Comtrade, UNCTAD TRAINS/WITS (incidence measures such as Frequency Index (FI) and Coverage Ratio (CR) , the World Bank (GDP), FAOSTAT (production), and CEPII (distance), the study estimates multiple-regression gravity models to examine the trade effects of these measures. To complement the econometric analysis with implementation realities, semi structured interviews were conducted with Myanmar rice exporters, traders, inspection agencies, and government officials to identify key compliance bottlenecks and practical solutions. The quantitative findings indicate that these measures exhibit mixed and generally weak effects on intra-ASEAN rice trade flows. While some SPS and TBT (2) variables show expected signs, their statistical significance is limited, suggesting that these measures do not function primarily as direct trade-restricting instruments. Instead, SPS and TBT measures appear to affect trade indirectly by increasing compliance costs, administrative complexity, and shipment delays, which raise transaction costs without necessarily reducing overall trade flows. On the other hand, the qualitative findings also reveal that SPS and TBT measures affect trade mainly through increased compliance costs, procedural delays, repeated laboratory testing, documentation duplication, and uncertainty at border clearance points. All stakeholders who participated in the interviews identified time- and cost-related burdens. In addition, most respondents highlighted insufficient regulatory alignment and the absence of mutual recognition across ASEAN member countries as major contributors to trade frictions. Overall, the study concludes that NTMs can function as both trade-restrictive and trade-facilitating instruments depending on their scope, consistency, and implementation. The findings highlight the impacts of NTMs on the trade, the importance of regulatory harmonization, mutual acceptance of compliance verification results, and digital trade facilitation to strengthen intra-ASEAN rice trade and regional food security.