FOREIGN TRADE DYNAMICS UNDER GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY: AN ECONOMETRIC PERSPECTIVE FROM UZBEKISTAN

This paper examines the dynamics of foreign trade in Uzbekistan and its implications for foreign economic security under conditions of increasing global uncertainty. The study applies statistical analysis and a simple econometric trend model to evaluate the growth of trade turnover and identify structural imbalances. The results show that while foreign trade has demonstrated stable growth in recent years, it remains characterized by a high level of import dependence. The calculated import dependence ratio confirms that imports consistently exceed 50% of total trade turnover, indicating structural vulnerability to external shocks. The findings highlight the need for strengthening export diversification, reducing reliance on critical imports, and enhancing risk management mechanisms. The study also emphasizes the importance of integrating trade finance instruments to improve the resilience and sustainability of foreign economic activity in Uzbekistan.