Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influ...对于具有复杂生活史的生物而言，其耐受气候变化的能力往往随个体发育阶段的不同而存在差异。近年来开发的物种分布模型（species distribution model）已纳入不同生活阶段的性状特征，但这类生活史模型主要评估致死性气候变化的影响。本研究针对气候变化生态预测场景下，反复发生的亚致死增温对生物发育与存活的影响展开探究。我们在实验室中，于模拟当前气候条件与增温情景的温度周期下饲养蜥蜴胚胎；同时还对天然巢穴进行人工增温，以复刻实验室处理方案。两种实验场景下，反复亚致死增温均降低了胚胎存活率与孵出幼体的体型。将存活数据纳入机械论物种分布模型（mechanistic species distribution model）后，相较于未纳入亚致死增温效应的模型，该模型预测的年存活率最多下降24%。与未纳入亚致死效应的模型结果相悖，我们的模型表明，发育温度的小幅升高会影响