Associative Analysis of the Relationship between Temperature and the Risk of Resident Mortality in Liaocheng City Based on the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model

Objective To investigate the relationship between inappropriate temperatures and non-accidental and circulatory system disease deaths among Liaocheng residents.Methods A distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to fit the daily death counts and meteorological data in Liaocheng from 2017 to 2021, analyzing the exposure-response relationship between temperature and deaths.Results The risks of non-accidental and circulatory system disease deaths peaked on the 3rd day of low-temperature exposure, with RR of 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05-1.12) and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05-1.13), respectively. They peaked on the day of high-temperature exposure, with RR both being 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04-1.18, 1.03-1.19). The cumulative lag effects of extreme low temperatures on non-accidental and circulatory system disease deaths reached maxima on the 10th and 11th days, respectively, while those of extreme high temperatures peaked on the 12th and 14th days. The AF of non-accidental and circulatory system disease deaths in the low-temperature segment (13.25%, 19.08%, 95% CI: 5.03%-19.65%, 10.58%-26.27%) were notably higher than those in the extreme temperature segment.Conclusion Inappropriate temperatures in Liaocheng significantly elevate the death risk of residents.