Spatial and temporal aridity gradients provide poor proxies for plant-plant interactions under climate change: a large-scale experiment

1. Plant-plant interactions may critically modify the impact of climate change on plant communities. However, the magnitude and even direction of potential future interactions remains highly debated, especially for water limited ecosystems. Predictions range from increasing facilitation to increasing competition with future aridification. 2. The different methodologies used for assessing plant-plant interactions under changing environmental conditions may affect the outcome but they are not equally represented in the literature. Mechanistic experimental manipulations are rare compared to correlative approaches that infer future patterns from current observations along spatial climatic gradients. 3. Here, we utilize a unique climatic gradient in combination with a large-scale, long-term experiment to test whether predictions about plant-plant interactions yield similar results when using experimental manipulations, spatial gradients or temporal variation. We assessed shrub-annual interac...