Replication package: Exchange rate pass-through and monetary credibility in Türkiye, 1994 to 2023

Türkiye's inflation experience over the past three decades is unusual among emerging markets. It contains a clean inflation-targeting regime sandwiched between two episodes of compromised monetary credibility, with regime boundaries dated by well-defined institutional events. Kara and Ogunc (2008) and several contributions since recorded the decline in pass-through that followed the 2002 reforms. The other half of the Taylor (2000) prediction, that pass-through should come back when credibility goes, has not been tested with comparable care. We use monthly FRED data from 1994:01 to 2023:08 and a recursive VAR in CPI, broad money M3, and the BIS real effective exchange rate. The variance contribution of the REER to Turkish CPI inflation rises by an order of magnitude across regimes: 5.0 percent in 1994-2002, 2.7 percent in 2003-2017, and 30.9 percent in 2018-2023. The point increase between the inflation-targeting regime and the post-targeting era is 28 percentage points. The bootstrap confidence intervals are wide given the modest size of the post-targeting subsample (n=68), and a paired bootstrap Wald test does not reject regime equality at conventional levels. The qualitative shift is robust to monetary aggregate and to alternative Cholesky orderings. A parallel United States analysis under identical methodology shows no comparable cross-regime variation. Standard nominal M3 carries an FX-deposit measurement issue, discussed in the paper, that affects the cross-country comparison of monetary channels.